The Bank of Canada began lowering its benchmark rate on June 5th of this year. It did so again in July, September, and on October 23rd it made its biggest reduction, 0.50 percent, bringing its overnight lending rate to 3.75 percent. The Toronto and Region residential resale market did not immediately react to these rate reductions, in fact the market’s immediate reaction was one of caution, which further immobilized buyers.

Based on the policy statements accompanying the Bank of Canada’s rate reductions, more rate cuts were on their way. With mortgage interest rate levels higher than they have been in recent memory, and average house prices still high, potential buyers waited for a more affordable buying landscape. As a result, the market’s sales performance in July, August and September was abysmal. Higher sales volumes were being achieved more than two decades ago when the Region’s population was almost 2 million people fewer than it is today.

All that changed in October. The four rate cuts have provided some affordability relief, and buyers responded positively. In October 6,658 properties were reported sold, a 44.4 percent improvement over the 4,611 properties reported sold last October. Although this is a substantial, and welcome improvement, it is still lower than the typical number of sales in October over the past 15 years. For example, in October 2011, 7,642 homes traded hands. October’s numbers were also a welcome improvement over September’s sales. In September only 4,978 homes were reported sold. The 6,658 sales in October were a 34 percent improvement over last month’s results.

Average sale prices continued to stay strong. In October the average sale price came in at $1,135,215, 1.1 percent higher than the average sale price of $1,123,390 achieved last year. Average sales prices declined marginally in the 905 Region (less than 1percent) but strengthened in the City of Toronto. The average sale price for detached properties in the 416 Region came in at $1,778,855, an increase of 4.4 percent, while semi-detached properties came in at $1,315,547, an increase of 3.3 percent compared to October last year.

Condominium apartment sales improved along with other sectors of the resale market in October, although not quite to the same degree. In October condominium apartment sales throughout the Region were up by 33.4 percent whereas ground level property sales (detached, semi-detached and townhouses) increased by almost 50 percent year-over-year.

The increase in condominium apartment sales was, no doubt, in part driven by their continuing decline in average sale prices. Notwithstanding that sales of condominium apartments in the City of Toronto increased by 32 percent, the average sale price declined by 1 percent. The average sale price came in at $721,366. At the end of October there were 8,774 condominium apartments available to buyers. This represents 35 percent of the entire supply of available homes in the Region.

Generally, supply remains high compared to the years leading up to the pandemic market, which saw supply plummet. During the pandemic market, almost every property coming to market was immediately absorbed. At the end of October there were 24,481 properties available to buyers throughout the region, more than 25 percent higher than the 19,536 available last year. The number of new listings coming to market slowed in October. Although higher than last year, the number of new properties coming to market was reminiscent of the number of properties coming to the market in October in the years before the pandemic. In October 14,700 new listings came to market. In 2018 and 2019, 14,435 and 13,050 properties came to the market in October, respectively.

Semi-detached properties, particularly in Toronto’s eastern and western trading areas, continue to be the most sought-after property type. Desirable communities and price point are driving this sector of the marketplace. In the City of Toronto’s western trading areas all semi-detached properties sold for $1,315,547 (on average), in 19 days, and for 103 percent of their asking price. In the City’s eastern districts all semi-detached properties sold for $1,235,314 (on average), amazingly in only 13 days and (also amazingly), for 107 percent of their asking price. Unlike condominium apartments, the supply of semi-detached properties is almost non-existent. Throughout all the trading areas of the City of Toronto only 515 semi-detached properties were available for sale – representing only 2 percent of the Region’s entire inventory.

Looking forward towards the end of 2024 and into 2025 we are optimistic about the Toronto and Region residential, resale market. The Bank of Canada’s lower benchmark rate – now at 3.75 percent – has made purchasing a home in the Toronto Region more affordable but a return to pre-pandemic affordability is still far in the future. As October came to an end, five-year fixed term mortgage rates continued to hover around 4.5 percent, substantially higher than the 2 percent rates available before and during the pandemic. Another Bank of Canada rate cut is expected in December, likely another 0.5 percent. This will further drive the market momentum that we saw in October. Early November data indicates that the momentum is continuing.

The Bank of Canada, as anticipated, reduced its benchmark rate in June, but it did not have the desired market effect. In fact it had the opposite effect. That’s because the rate cut was marginal, only 0.25 percent, not enough to move the resale market needle. Mortgage markets and bond markets had already analyzed and digested the prevailing economic data and had already priced into the Bank of Canada’s rate cut. Except for variable rates, still very lofty at 6.4 percent, there was no movement in fixed five year terms. After the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts, five year fixed term rates remain above 5 percent.

Since the Bank’s rate cut had no impact on fixed mortgage rates, affordability was not affected. Buyers were immobilized by this insignificant rate cut, now hoping for a better financing environment after the Bank meets again in late July.

Sales for the City of Toronto and the surrounding Region totalled 6,213 properties in June, 16.4 percent fewer than the 7,429 sales that were reported last year. The decline in sales was universal, affecting all housing types throughout the entire Region. Condominium apartments, the most financially sensitive housing type, dramatically demonstrated the affordability crisis. Condominium apartment sales declined by over 28 percent, notwithstanding that they are the least expensive housing type. The average sale price of condominium apartment sales came in at $727,861. Condominium apartment sales represented almost 50 percent of the overall Toronto and Region resale market, a huge drag on the monthly numbers.

Notwithstanding the decline in sales the average sale price for all properties sold, including condominium apartments has remained very resident.

In June, the average sale price came in at $1,162,167, marginally lower than it was last year. Even though affordability has plagued the resale market throughout 2024 (and the later half of 2023) the average sale price has continued to rise throughout the year. In January, the average sale price was only $1,025,262. It has increased by more than 13 percent since the beginning of the year.

Inventory has also increased throughout the first half of 2024. At the end of June there were 23,613 properties available to buyers, 67.4 percent more than the 14,108 available last year. This volume is now beginning to push beyond pre-pandemic inventory levels. At the same period, in 2018 and 2019, inventory levels were approximately 20,000. At the end of June there were 8,806 condominium apartment available to buyers. Almost 40 percent of the total available inventory is represented by condominium apartments.

Although sales and average sale prices of detached and semi-detached properties declined, the properties that sold did so in robust fashion. All detached properties in the City of Toronto sold in only 15 days and at 101 percent of their asking price. The average sale price for all detached properties sold came in at $1,758,649. All semi-detached properties sold in only 13 days and, amazingly, for 105 percent of their asking price. In Toronto’s eastern trading districts, all semi-detached properties sold in only 10 days on market and for an eye-popping 110 percent of their asking price. The average sale price for semi-detached properties in June came in at $1,282,000.

At first glance, it is difficult to reconcile the performance of detached and semi-detached properties against the backdrop of declining sales numbers. A deeper analysis indicates that demand, primarily due to population growth, remains strong. The problem is that most buyers can not afford to purchase detached and semi-detached properties with five year interest rates at more than 5 percent. In addition, there is the hurdle of the crippling mortgage stress test amounting to another 2 percentage points. Those that could afford the lofty detached and semi-detached properties aggressively bought them, and in almost record time, paying over the asking prices.

Condominium apartment sales are the weakest sector in the resale market. Inventory levels have increased substantially, approaching almost 9,000 units, as fewer apartments are absorbed by sales. At the end of June there are almost 9 months of condominium apartment inventory in the Toronto and Region resale market. Surprisingly the average sale price in Toronto’s central core for condominium apartments came in at $815,305. This is no doubt due to the fact that out of the 1,014 reported sales 20 of these apartments sold for prices between $1,750,000 to $2,000,000.

So what can the resale market anticipate for July? In a phrase, more of what happened in June. The central force is affordability, or a lack thereof. That will not change in July, although it might in August. The next Bank of Canada scheduled date for announcing its overnight target date is July 24th. It is anticipated that the Bank will once again reduce its overnight target by another 0.25 percent. This will result in five year mortgage interest rates coming down to around 5 percent. That will probably not be enough to significantly move the resale needle, which means that July and August (which are also seasonally slow months) will not be dissimilar to what the resale market experienced in June. A more aggressive rate cut by the Bank will stimulate the market resulting in a dramatic rise in sales.

The April 2024 Market Report concluded with the following forecast for May for the Toronto and Region resale market: “The average sale price will continue to hover around $1,150,000, with sales expected to come in at the 7,000-plus range.” Not surprisingly, May’s results came in as expected. The Toronto and Region achieved 7,013 property sales, and the average sale price came in at $1,165,691. As in previous months, the Toronto and Region resale market has and continues to be constrained by affordability, or more accurately, the lack thereof.

The 7,013 sales achieved in May were almost 28 percent fewer than the 8,960 sales reported last year. Comparisons to last year are not helpful in understanding the current Toronto resale market. Reported sales for May 2023 were the highest achieved in any month last year. The Bank of Canada’s benchmark rate had remained steady at 4.5 percent through the first 5 months of 2023. Buyers had adjusted to borrowing rates and to the extent their household incomes permitted, had enthusiastically entered the resale market. That buying enthusiasm was one of a number of economic factors that caused the Bank of Canada to increase rates in June, and then again in July. By August the resale market was in sharp decline, where it has remained. A decline in reported sales, not demand.

The decline in the average sale price, which was moderate, from $1,195,409 to $1,165,691 was driven by the decline in average sale prices in the 905 region and the 1,942 condominium apartments (almost 30 percent of all report sales) that sold at an average sale price of $730,815. In the City of Toronto, the average sale price for condominium apartments came in higher at $767,064.

In May inventory levels continued to rise. During the month 18,612 new listings came to market, 21 percent more than the 15,363 that came to market last year. By the end of the month there were 21,760 properties available to buyers, more than 83 percent higher than the 11,869 available last year. Although this number appears high by Covid-era comparison, it’s not out of line by historical comparison. For example, in May 2018 active listings totalled 20,919, and in May 2019, the year before the Covid-era disrupted the resale market, there were 20,017 properties available to buyers.

What the year-over-year data does not disclose is the enormous demand in the marketplace. This demand is constrained by a lack of affordability. With Toronto’s average household income before taxes hovering around $110,000 (CMHC) and average sale prices coming in at $1,165,691, many buyers are simply unable to participate in this market. Those that can are still driving a strong, robust resale market.

Throughout the Region, all detached properties sold in only 16 days and for 101 percent of their asking prices. In the City of Toronto, detached properties were reported sold in only 14 days and for 104 percent of their asking prices. The average sale price of all detached property sales in Toronto came in at an eye-popping $1,826,370. Semi-detached properties throughout the Region sold in only 13 days and for 106 percent of their asking prices. In the City of Toronto they similarly sold in only 13 days, but for 107 percent of their asking prices. The average sale price for semi-detached properties in Toronto came in at $1,416,496. Assuming the buyer has saved $284,000 (20 percent of the average-priced semi-detached property), the buyer would need to have a household income of approximately $240,000 in order to qualify for a mortgage of more than $1,100,000. In addition, the buyer would be expected to pay land transfer taxes of almost $50,000. Hence the affordability issue.

Condominium apartment sales continue to lag and act as a drag on the overall market. In May 1,942 condominium apartments were reported sold. On average these apartments took 25 days to sell and at only 99 percent of their asking price. A very different pace than detached and semi-detached property sales. The average sale price for all condominium apartment sales through the Region was $730,000. The poor performance of condominium apartment sales is especially due to affordability. Condominium apartments attract the first-time buyer cohort. First-time buyers, generally with lower household incomes, given prevailing mortgage interest rates and even average sale prices in the $730,000 range, are financially constrained from entering the resale market. It is for that reason the condominium apartment sales are underperforming compared to detached and semi- detached property sales.

As this Market Report was being prepared the Bank of Canada announced a 0.25 percent reduction in its benchmark rate, bringing it to 4.75 percent. The first reduction in four years. No doubt this will help with affordability, but only marginally. Furthermore, since the beginning of 2024 the bond market, and by association the mortgage market, have analyzed and digested current and future economic conditions, and fixed mortgage rates

have likely been priced into the expected Bank of Canada’s rate cut. As a result, there will be very little downward movement in five-year fixed mortgage rates. There will be some downward movement in variable rates.

With all this economic and resale market data at play, we should anticipate similar sales results in June as we saw in May, with some uptick in sales generated by the psychologically improved outlook generated by the Bank of Canada’s rate cut. Separate and apart from the Bank’s rate cut, we will see positive sales variances month-over- month compared to 2023 as we move into the second half of 2024. This is due to the dismal results achieved by the resale market from July through to the end of last year. If the Bank continues with a further rate cut in July the second half of 2024 be substantially stronger than the first half of this year.

A number of commentators have focused on April’s negative variances compared to market results achieved in April 2023. Specifically, the fact that sales declined by 5 percent from the 7,114 residential properties that traded hands this year compared to the 7,487 properties reported sold last April.

In addition, heavy emphasis was placed on the number of new listings that came to market and the number of active properties available to buyers at the end of the month. Last year, 11,509 new properties came to market. This April, 16,941 came to market, an increase of more than 47 percent. By month end, there were 18,088 homes available to buyers, almost 75 percent more than the 10,373 properties available last April.

Year-over-year, lower sales and a dramatic increase in supply may give the appearance of a declining market, but a deeper dive into April’s data tells a very different story.

By April of 2023, the Toronto and Region resale market was ascending rapidly. It was ascending so rapidly that in June and July the Bank of Canada, apprehensive as to the strong real estate market’s impact on rising inflation, increased its benchmark rate to 5 percent (where it currently stands). By August, the resale market was in steep descent. That descent has only been reversed during the first four months of 2024. Often, year-over-year comparisons belie and sometimes distort market reality.

Market reality is more accurately reflected by the speed of sales and their sale price as compared to asking prices. In April, all properties reported sold (including condominium apartments), on average, sold at 102 percent of their asking price and in only 19 days. If condominium apartment sales are extracted from the overall numbers, the results are startlingly positive.

In April, all the detached properties that sold in the City of Toronto “flew off the shelf” in only 15 days and at 103 percent of their asking prices. The average sale price for all detached properties in the City of Toronto came in at $1,822,244. More significantly, all detached properties reported sold in Toronto Central, which encompasses some of Toronto’s most expensive neighborhoods, sold in only 18 days and for 100 percent of their asking price. The average sale price for detached property sales in Toronto’s central districts came in at an eye-popping $2,627,700.

Activity in the semi-detached sector was even more robust. All semi-detached properties that became available in the City of Toronto sold for 108 percent of their asking price, and amazingly, in only 12 days. In the 905 Region, activity for semi-detached properties was just as brisk. All sales took place in only 13 days and at 106 percent of asking prices. Semi-detached properties in Toronto’s eastern districts sold at pandemic-level speed. All semi-detached properties sold in only 10 days and at 112 percent of their asking prices. The average sale price for semi-detached homes in April was substantially higher in the City of Toronto than in the 905 Region. The average sale price in the 905 came in at $1,139,929. Furthermore. the average sale price for semi-detached homes in the City of Toronto was almost 20 percent higher, coming in at $1,365,061.

Condominium apartments, the largest segment of available properties, performed poorly in April, acting as a drag on the overall resale market. All condominium apartments that sold in April did so in 26 days, and at only 99 percent of their asking price, a dramatic divergence from detached and semi-detached activity. The average sale price for all condominium apartments sold came in at $728,067. Sales were off by 9.5 percent compared to last April.

Even more concerning is the number of new listings that came to market. In April, 5,542 new condominium apartments came to the market – almost 33 percent of all new inventory. By month end, 7,015 condominium apartments were available to buyers, almost 40 percent of total available inventory.

There are many factors responsible for the disconnect between the condominium apartment market and the ground level market of detached and semi-detached homes. No doubt the increasing inventory represents investor units purchased before or during the pandemic market. With rising financing costs, these units are financially non-performing, and investors are selling to reduce losses. In addition, many thousands of unquantifiable assignment sales are also on the market, competing with listed condominium apartments, resulting in a glut of available inventory.

At first blush, one would conclude that this would be a market opportunity for buyers. Unfortunately, condominium apartments are primarily the homes of choice for first time buyers. Most available apartments are spatially small. Since 2017, all condominium apartments built in Toronto average only 659 square feet. Two decades earlier, they averaged 1,010, still relatively small but quite livable. The same size reduction in units is true for all condominium apartments built in the greater Toronto Region.

These small condominium apartments remain beyond the economic reach of most first-time buyers, many being immigrants without local family support. In Toronto’s central districts, where 63 percent of the City of Toronto’s sales take place, and 41 percent of all condominium apartment sales in the greater Toronto area took place, the average sale price in April was a lofty $829,501. Given today’s mortgage financing costs, a buyer would need a household income of approximately $175,000 to purchase the average price condominium apartment in central Toronto. Canada Mortgage and Housing reports that the average household income in central Toronto is $109,599.

Clearly, the Toronto and Region marketplace is fractured. The ground-level resale market is strong with average sales prices remaining strong, with detached and semi- detached properties selling quickly and for strong sale prices. The rapidity with which ground-level properties sell speaks to the market’s incredible demand, driven by years of population growth due primarily to immigration.

Demand for condominium apartments appears to have waned, primarily due to space constraints as a result of poor, but economically lucrative (for developers), design developments. In addition, for most first-time buyers, even if they were happy to accept these small condominium apartments, at their current price point, they remain unaffordable.

Looking forward, we can expect similar market results in May. The average sale price will continue to hover around $1,150,000, with sales expected to come in at the 7,000 plus range. To some extent the market is in a limbo state, hanging on every statement uttered by the Bank of Canada, waiting for the much-anticipated rate cut. In June? July?

This first month of 2024 unfolded as anticipated. As 2023 came to an end, an air of optimism began to spread through the Toronto and Region residential resale market. This optimism was driven by the belief that rate hikes by the Bank of Canada were at an end and rate relief was on its way. This was confirmed in January when the Bank met and held its benchmark rate at 5 percent, but more importantly, and for the first time, indicated that it was already planning for rate cuts - it was just a question of when.

This optimism was reflected in January's resale data. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reported 4,223 sales for the month. Although not a stellar month, January's sales were 37 percent higher than the 3,083 properties reported sold last year, and 30 percent higher than the 3,435 reported sold in December. The first month-over- month increase since August of 2023.

The average sale price was practically unchanged year- over-year. Last January, the average sale price came in at $1,036,925. This January, it was $1,026,703, a marginal 1 percent decline. The small decline in the average sale price was primarily driven by declining condominium apartment prices in the 905 Region. Year-over-year, they declined by almost 3 percent. Condominium apartment prices in the City of Toronto remained unchanged comingin at $709,419.  The average price for condominium apartments in the 905 Region was $628,375 in January.

A noticeable difference between January 2023 and January 2024 was the length of time properties took to sell. Last year, all properties (on average) sold in just 29 days. This year, that number jumped to 37 days, a substantial 28 percent increase. Even though more buyers purchased homes this January compared to January 2023, they did so deliberately. What is encouraging is that more buyers managed to overcome the affordability challenges that have been restricting the resale market.

Another positive development in the market was the change in availability - although not as dramatic as the change in average days on market. In January, 8,312 new properties came to market - no doubt many of these were relisted properties. Last year, only 7,836 came to market, 6 percent fewer than this year. At the end of January, there were 10,093 homes of all property types available to buyers, 8.5 percent more than the 9,300 available last year.

January's numbers point to improved sales numbers and, no doubt, increasing average sale prices as we move through the year. Buyers took advantage of lower available mortgage interest rates due to lender competition and will become even more active as the economy moves towards Bank of Canada rate cuts, now expected in June. Given the staggering population growth in the Toronto and Region resale marketplace, and the sizeable pent-up demand generated by affordability challenges, all signs point to a very strong resale market for 2024.

It will be interesting to observe what the impact of various legislative changes will have on the City of Toronto's luxury market. Starting in 2024, buyers of high-end real estate will be required to pay egregious land transfer taxes. Buyers of properties having a sale price of over $5 million will be expected to pay a tax of 5.5 percent of the purchase price, 6.5 percent for properties sold over $10 million up to $20 million and 7.5 percent for sales over $20 million. This tax is in addition to the provincial land transfer tax (approximately 2.5 percent of the sale price). A buyer of a $10 million home in the City of Toronto will be expected to pay an eye- popping land transfer tax of $652,950 ($236,475 provincial and $416,475 City of Toronto). In addition, the City of Toronto increased its vacant home tax to 3 percent of the assessed value of properties starting in 2024.

The combined effect of these taxes, in addition to a proposed municipal property tax increase of more than 10 percent, makes the City of Toronto's real estate residential market very expensive compared to other jurisdictions, even within Ontario. These politically motivated measures, though well intentioned, will have the opposite of their intended impact. Toronto is becoming less, not more, affordable.